Why Nominal Rigidity is Central to Macroeconomic Stability

I have set out a New Keynesian model that should prove useful for policy. Its backbone, the Phillips Curve, compares favourably along all dimensions in preliminary data analysis; with a jump in predictive power guaranteed under the null it is the true model. My analysis shows nominal rigidity is central to understanding macroeconomic dynamics; whatever the inflation rate, no matter how small the shocks are. It hints at a surprising yet intuitive rationale for the inertial policies, ubiquitous at successful central banks.

Natural next steps include a wage Phillips curve and optimal policy problems. I will theorize further about the error terms and there will be a renewed commitment to structural econometrics. No doubt alterations and extensions will arise but I am confident the salient features of the solution here will survive.

I have constructed a rigorous solution method for a class of previously intractable problems. Yet, I have only scratched the surface of what is conceivable with this mathematical framework. The techniques I have developed will have applications, elsewhere in economics and beyond.

Numerous theories of real and nominal frictions have been set out with less intuition and empirical support than the one here. All were implicitly based on perceived failures of a faulty New Keynesian model. When solved correctly, a benchmark sticky price model implies clear and credible trade-offs. Together my results decisively answer the broadly fair criticisms of previous formulations, as levelled by Chari et al. [2009].

New Keynesian economics now has striking results and firm foundations. In this paper, I have profoundly reinterpreted the Lucas critique and our understanding of the Phillips curve. By disproving observational equivalence between Keynesian and Classical models, I have surely ensured that: "We are all Keynesians now."[104]

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104The phrase was supposedly uttered at different times, possibly with different intentions, by Milton Friedman and Richard Nixon. The respective attributions are here: https://web.archive.org/web/20081023074323 /http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,842353-3,00.html https://www.nytimes.com/1971/01/07/archives/nixon-reportedly-says-he-is-now-akeynesian.html It should not be surprising that a rigorous solutions ends up confirming policy consensus and economic intuition.

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